The
International Air Transport Association (IATA) says it expects full-year
traffic for 2020 to be 66% down compared to 2019, a revision downwards from a previously
forecast decline of 63%.
The organisation
says the downgrade comes after a “dismal end to the summer travel season in the
Northern Hemisphere”; August revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) were down
75.3% compared to August 2019.
“August’s disastrous traffic performance puts a cap on the
industry’s worst-ever summer season. International demand recovery is virtually
non-existent and domestic markets in Australia and Japan actually regressed in
the face of new outbreaks and travel restrictions. A few months ago, we thought
that a full-year fall in demand of -63% compared to 2019 was as bad as it could
get. With the dismal peak summer travel period behind us, we have revised our
expectations downward to -66%,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general
and CEO.
“Forward bookings for air travel in the fourth
quarter show that the recovery since the April low point will continue to
falter,” added IATA. Domestic
markets have recovered to some extent but most markets are substantially down
on a year ago.
De Juniac warned
that hundreds of thousands of airline jobs are at risk. “Traditionally,
cash generated during the busy summer season in the Northern Hemisphere
provides airlines with a cushion during the lean autumn and winter seasons.
This year, airlines have no such protection. Without additional government
relief measures and a reopening of borders, hundreds of thousands of airline
jobs will disappear,” he said.
“But it is not just airlines and airline jobs at risk.
Globally tens of millions of jobs depend on aviation. If borders don’t reopen
the livelihoods of these people will be at grave risk. We need an
internationally agreed regime of pre-departure Covid-19 testing to give
governments the confidence to reopen borders, and passengers the confidence to
travel by air again.”