Global economic and political events over the past year have resulted in IATA cutting its long-term growth forecast for airline passenger numbers.
According to its own research, global passenger numbers are expected to reach 7 billion by 2034, more than double the 3.3 billion that flew in 2014, but down 400 million on last year’s forecast.
IATA’s CEO Tony Tyler said the drop in figures shows how much the political climate can impact air travel.
“Air transport is a critical part of the global economy and policy-makers should take note if its sensitivity,” said Tyler. “The economic impact of 400 million fewer travellers is significant, each is a lost opportunity to explore, create social and cultural value and generate economic and employment opportunities.”
IATA said the increase in passenger numbers over the next decade will be fuelled by significant growth in Africa.
The research shows the five-fastest-increasing markets will be in Africa. The top 10 will be: Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, Serbia, Tanzania, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and Vietnam – each of these markets is expected to grow by 7-8 per cent each year on average.
The five fastest-increasing markets will be China (758m new passengers for a total of 1.19bn), US (523m – 1.15bn), India (275m – 378m), Indonesia (132m – 219m) and Brazil (104m – 202m).
The figures also showed that China is expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market by 2029 and by 2026 India will displace the UK as the third-largest market.
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