Jean-Cyril Spinetta, ceo of Air France and a leading figure in world aviation, delivered a speech at the end of last month to the Nyenrode European Business Forum in Breukelen in the Netherlands.
His subject was the Air France KLM merger and its unexpectedly rapid success.
There seems little dispute that the merger between these too major European airlines has worked better than expected and delivered synergies and savings far more quickly than expected.
Mr Spinetta said: "When we announced our agreement, we forecast synergies of €400m to €500m in five years. We now know that this figure will be €600m.
"This is a substantial increase. But what is even more remarkable is that, after only two
years, we've already achieved over €300m in synergies instead of the target of €150m."
He went on to outline three main challenges which are facing the Air France KLM: rising oil prices, changing regulatory framework and maintaining and reinforcing trust.
Leaving aside the last, let us look more closely at the first two.
On the fuel front, he paints a worrying picture. In the last few years, these have risen by up to 400% for AF KLM. Next year the airlines expect to spend €4.3bn on fuel. By 2008, they are likely to be paying the full market prices when the hedging agreements become less effective.
"It's a situation we'll have to live with. The only solution is to reduce our costs. We are operating in an increasingly competitive market, where the dramatic development of the Internet enables consumers to compare fares and choose the lowest. So we can only guarantee the success of the AF-KLM Group by maintaining and even improving its competitiveness," Mr Spinetta said.
At the same time, he acknowledged the arrival of new long haul players in the Middle East, China and India. "This means we are confronted with competition from countries benefiting from low production costs,” he said.
There were, he said, also the lower airport fees charged at Middle East airports “financed by the State.”
The second major challenge highlighted by Mr Spinetta is the changing regulatory framework.
"As you know discussions are under way between the EU and US to sign an Open Skies agreement. The talks took place in December and the outcome was unanimously approved by all 25 EU member States.
“The agreement will be finalised when the US Government has eased its legislation on the ownership and control of US airlines by foreign investors," he said.
There's something of an air of unreality here: "The only solution is to reduce our costs." "The agreement will be finalised when the US Government has eased its legislation on the ownership."
Airlines since before 9/11, which rapidly accelerated a situation already underway, have been struggling to reduce their costs, albeit with some effect.
But much of these reduced costs have been passed on to customers rather than taken out of the system. There's a limit to that.
With some of the biggest US airlines in and out of Chapter 11 protection as well as being the beneficiaries of some massive state support since 9/11, it is hard to believe US senators are about to expose them to further competition from Europeans or anyone else.
Any relaxation in ownership rules is not likely to be extensive.
In short, Mr Spinetta may be being a trifle optimistic. Things may not be quite as rosy as he would have us believe.
The European airline industry faces deep problems. The major single one is probably overcapacity: too many airline seats for too few passengers. Any hopes that the long predicted consolidation of airlines would bring a reduction of this overcapacity has been undermined by the AF KLM merger that has succeeded in part by expanding.
"Right from the beginning, we decided on an offensive rather than defensive strategy. Some industry analysts were disappointed when we decided NOT to cut back on capacity and staff," he said.
Airlines, not just AF KLM, go on relentlessly increasing capacity. It is rare for a week to go by without an airline in Europe announcing a new route or an increased frequency.
US analysts predict the price of oil should drop in the next couple of years to €50 a barrel but another political upheaval - they are not unknown - in the Middle East could scotch that.
At the same time the Green lobby is likely to become increasingly vocal as aviation is held to be a primary source of toxic emissions.
The future of the aviation industry in Europe seems more a cause for concern than optimism.