Boris Johnson may have a tendency to jump the gun – but his airport plans are still far from dead in the water
LOOKING INTO the political crystal ball when writing the last Westminster Watch column in December, it seemed that the political year would be defined by the Boris vs Ken battle for London.
So, a lot is at stake and, with the candidates neck and neck, a frantic run-up to the polls in May is guaranteed.
No sooner had the New Year hangovers faded did Boris prove our point with his forays into the press, and on to the radio and TV, to proclaim the fact that Cameron and Osborne were now supporters of the Thames Estuary airport and a consultation would be seen in spring to bottom-out the proposals.
It made perfect sense for Boris. Ken’s campaign is rooted in the daily grind of rising tube fares and his capacity to battle the government. Boris is about a vision for the capital and the ability to wheedle what London needs – the story leaked to The Daily Telegraph proclaiming a volte-face in government attitudes to the project ticked all the boxes for Boris… for about six hours.
That was how long it took for the Lib Dems to mobilise themselves and remind people that not only would they have a say in this project, but that they remain opposed to a new airport in the south-east. A flurry of Lib Dems took to the media and Clegg dug his heels in.
The manner in which Boris delivered his news and the coverage he secured have now been suggested to have killed off his chances of something more significant happening, other than a consultation. Still, Boris is canny, however much he may wish to seem otherwise, and his focus is on this May – not a decade hence and what may or may not happen in the Thames Estuary. He has got his message across and we can expect more of these media smash-and-grabs.
During March and April the political noise should go up another notch. The Budget will be a frenzy of briefing and counter-briefing, and the publication of the Department for Transport’s Draft Sustainable Framework for UK aviation, which is the latest stage of their aviation strategy (due in March 2013), will be the next phase of the battle between the industry and the anti-aviation lobby.
In the Budget, amid all the macro-economic arguments around austerity and deficit reduction, there are nuggets of specific interest to the business travel industry, not least the fact that the Budget will set out the immediate future of air passenger duty (APD). Keep an eye out for the “A Fair Tax on Flying” campaign in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the Draft Sustainable Framework will be a key test for the industry. Essentially, the anti-aviation lobby can coalesce around a relatively simple message – flying is bad for the environment and local communities. By contrast the pro-aviation lobby’s ability to speak with one voice is undermined a little by the fact that the prize (additional runways/airports) is often seen as a zero-sum game: if the Thames Estuary airport gets the thumbs-up, then Heathrow gets the thumbs-down and so on.
The ability of the industry to pitch their communications to areas of common ground will be vital in shifting government back to a policy that helps the economy rather than hinders it. The APD campaign is a great example of what can be done – but the response to the Draft Sustainable Framework will be an even bigger test.
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and associate director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC)