The opposition party is gearing up for battle – but how far are they prepared to go on transport policy?
THE START OF THE YEAR has seen the coalition (and particularly the Conservative Party) launch an effort to wrest control of the news agenda back to their side. We have seen this in the launch of the coalition review and a weekly drip-feed of policies, including childcare, High Speed 2 (HS2) and Europe.
In the midst of all this, it is easy to overlook what is going on with the Labour Party. Those of you with an interest in politics will have seen members of the New Labour project popping up on TV and in the papers, gently reminding party leader Ed Miliband that they won three elections on the bounce and that their recipe for those victories needs to be dusted off – that is, setting-up camp in the centre ground. They urge the Labour leadership to fill the policy vacuum and reassert these credentials.
Cavendish sources in Shadow teams have confirmed that the policy-vacuum message has been heard: 2013 is where they start to reveal their cards more. Transport policy, being scrutinised by the Shadow Treasury team as it is developed by the Shadow Department for Transport (DFT) colleagues, is potentially being signed-off by the Shadow Cabinet in May of this year, and will then be communicated at the opportune time.
The Labour leadership and strategists will be wanting to show how their policy is different, and reflects their concern for the One Nation approach that Miliband set out in his conference speech in 2012. The question is: what can they say? On aviation they have proven pretty vocal about the impact of air passengerduty, but there is a worry that Shadow Treasury ministers will be wary of making any unfunded commitments in this regard. On airport capacity, we have seen them repeatedly make the point that they have been calling for a commission for over a year, but have scrapped all their policy positions and are waiting on therecommendations of Sir Howard Davies in 2015.
On HS2, similarly, they have what they want – Lord Adonis, the ex-Transport Secretary, put the project into play and was recently in touch with the DFTministerial team to congratulate them on the launch of the second phase plans. More broadly, while the Shadow Transport team made some noise about timetable slippage, it is holding its line in support of the project.
That leaves rail as the only real avenue in which any radicalism can be established. The recent shambles around the West Coat Mainline franchise bid has weakened the DFT, but it is the outrage at the predictable rises in season ticket prices that is politically of interest. The coalition’s answer to this is a technocratic mix of efficiency savings and greater co-ordination that doesn’t really give a clear narrative for hard-pressed commuters to get their heads around.
The Labour Party is looking at more radical ways in which this cycle can be broken. Some of the left will use this opportunity to suggest the franchising system has failed and that Labour should be proposing a different model. The perceived success of the East Coast mainline, temporarily nationalised after the collapse of its franchise operator, is one that is being pointed at as a possible alternative. If it works there then why can’t it be applied to the rest of the major franchises?
The ultimate consideration will be whether the party is enticed towards a rail commitment that is radical and left wing, or whether it heeds the advice of the New Labourites counselling to stay and contest the centre ground. Either way the vacuum seems set to be filled.
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC)