Political lobbyist Gareth Morgan looks at the complex interaction between politics and aviation capacity ahead of Thursday's local and European elections
There are only a few days to go before important local elections to London’s 32 boroughs and councils across England on May 22 (not to mention elections to the European Parliament taking place on the same day), and the issue of aviation capacity is once again at the forefront of the political agenda, especially in the capital.
Mayor of London Boris Johnson recently published a report setting out his four alternative visions for the land at Heathrow airport if he gets his way, and the hub airport is moved to a new site at the Thames Estuary. These included the building of 80,000 new homes or turning Heathrow into an education quarter, creating 100,000 new jobs.
All of these schemes would take decades to accomplish, and Heathrow would need to remain operational until the Thames Estuary airport was completed, which may be as far off as the 2030s.
Understandably, there is significant concern about the job losses that could be incurred should Heathrow close. And certainly, not all west London workers would welcome relocating to the other side of the city. Some supporters of Heathrow expansion have claimed the closure of the airport would risk leaving huge swathes of land to decay, in a manner similar to the decline of the dockland area in east London, which did not recover for decades after the closure of the docks. These charges are strongly rebutted by the mayor’s team, led by his chief aviation adviser, Daniel Moylan.
As the Thames Estuary airport wasn’t even officially shortlisted in Sir Howard Davies’ Airport Commission’s interim report, it seems unlikely the mayor will get his way. But he is seeking to influence the politics around aviation expansion. The Davies Commission was supposed to park these issues until after the next general election, saving David Cameron a big political headache.
However, Boris Johnson’s willingness to reopen the debate around Heathrow comes at a time when Conservative councils around the airport, such as Hillingdon and Richmond, are asserting their opposition to a third runway, in the hope that it will win them electoral support.
Labour-controlled councils in west London have generally resisted attempts to call for the relocation of Heathrow, with Hounslow’s deputy leader, Colin Ellar, touring the television studios to make the jobs argument for the retention of Heathrow. Ellar was no doubt mindful that many of Labour’s core voters in boroughs such as Hounslow have low-paid jobs at Heathrow.
It remains to be seen whether the voters of west London are significantly moved in large numbers to either to cast their votes to oppose further expansion, or to buy into the jobs argument that supporters of Heathrow are making.
Things should look clearer once the local election results are known, and we can then expect similar arguments to be rehashed in a number of marginal seats close to Heathrow, all the way up until the next general election.
One thing remains certain: the political debate around the potential third runway at Heathrow will not be going away any time soon.
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the GTMC