Speaking in London during his annual market and product strategy overview, Boeing vice president of marketing Randy Basler says that in his view Boeing has got it right regarding future air transport requirements.
”Frequency growth and new stops is what is wanted,” he said. ”This is what we have always said going back 20 years.” Using the OAG flights database the actual average aircraft size in 2006 is just over 90% of that of 1996. This of course disproves the Airbus philosophy that very big ”planes are needed, hence the A380. The Airbus market forecast says that there will be a 20% increase in aircraft size over the next 20 years, from 181 to 215 seats. The average at Heathrow, the world”s busiest international airport, is about 160 seats per aircraft. Boeing says 2% at the most. Both companies agree that the total requirement is around 17,000 new aircraft.
Airbus has predicted 1,263 aircraft in the plus 450 area over the next 20 years. It also predicted the demise of 747 production, Baseler reminded the audience. Clearly this is some way off in the future with 54 cargo commitments for the 748-8 over the last 12 months, plus the surprise (to most industry pundits, but not Boeing) order for 20 for the passenger version by Lufthansa. Baseler says that Airbus has a real problem, a 200-seat gap between its largest (and not selling) A340-600 and the smallest A380.
”Whilst nothing has been confirmed this will not change with A350, which is likely to have a maximum 350-passenger capacity,” he said. ”Details of the XWB have not been made public yet, and in any event it is not that wide,” he claimed. ”The version revealed at Farnborough is 12” (30.5cm) narrower than the 777.
Mr Baseler said that the 787 roll-out would be in early July, just after the Paris Air Show, with the maiden flight in September and delivery of the first aircraft to ANA in May 2008.
ABTN plans to go ON TOUR with the Boeing Market and Product Strategy Overview at an early date.